Playoff Scenarios/Factoids - UPDATED Aug. 3

Update as of August 3: ATHLETICA CLAIM SECOND PLACE

Saint Louis Athletica were the big winners in Week 19, clinching a playoff spot by virtue of Washington’s loss to FC Gold Pride on Saturday, and then earning the No. 2 seed in the WPS Playoffs and the right to host the WPS Super Semifinal with a 1-0 victory over the Boston Breakers later in the day.

Saint Louis can now sit back, play its reserves and watch the teams in positions 3-5 battle it out for the final two playoff spots. The Boston Breakers, Sky Blue FC and Washington Freedom are all still in the hunt for a playoff berth and each control their own destiny by notching wins over the competition. Sky Blue FC and Washington clash on August 8, with Boston facing Los Angeles Sol on August 9.

Remaining Games with Playoff Implications:

Wed 8/5 - Sky Blue FC vs. FC Gold Pride - Yurcak Field, Piscataway, NJ - 7pm ET
Sat 8/8 - Washington Freedom vs. Sky Blue FC - Maryland SoccerPlex, Germantown, MD - 7pm ET
Sun 8/9 - Boston Breakers Los Angeles Sol - Harvard Stadium, Cambridge, MA - 6pm ET

The latest playoff picture:

1.) Los Angeles Sol – has clinched the WPS Regular Season title and a spot as host of the WPS Championship presented by MedImmune on August 22

2.) Saint Louis Athletica – has clinched second place in the WPS Standings and a spot as host of the WPS Super Semifinal on August 19 at The Anheuser-Busch Soccer Park.

3.) Washington Freedom – will clinch a playoff spot and home game as the third seed with a win on Saturday. Clinches a playoff spot with a tie on Saturday.

4.) Boston Breakers – will clinch a playoff spot with a win on Sunday. Will clinch home game as the third seed with a win and a Washington tie or loss on Saturday combined with Sky Blue FC tie or loss on Wednesday. Will clinch a playoff spot with a tie if Sky Blue fails to get more than two points. Will clinch a playoff spot with a tie if Sky Blue FC defeats Washington. Will clinch a playoff spot if Sky Blue fails to get more than one point this week.

5.) Sky Blue FC – will clinch third seed and home game with two victories. Will clinch playoff berth with a tie on Wednesday and win against Washington on Saturday. Could also clinch playoff berth with victory on Saturday depending on goal differential.

6.) Chicago Red Stars – Eliminated from playoffs

7.) FC Gold Pride – Eliminated from playoffs

Current Head-to-Heads

Boston vs. Washington 2-1-1
Washington vs. Boston 1-2-1
Boston vs. Sky Blue FC 0-3-1
Sky Blue FC vs. Boston 3-0-1
Washington vs. Sky Blue FC 1-0-1 *one game remaining
Sky Blue FC vs. Washington 0-1-1 *one game remaining

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Shannon Nicole;; on July 9, 2009 at 7:16pm: For playoffs:
LA
St. Louis
Boston
Washington; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by StarCityFan on July 9, 2009 at 9:29pm: Somebody has too much free time.... ;)

Other than that, I go along with Shannon, though I'm hopeful that the Freedom will earn at least a home playoff match - if they play as well as they did on Sunday, there's a good chance.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Austin H on July 10, 2009 at 7:53am: Wow, I thought LA had already clinched a second-place finish, interesting to hear BOS can still pass them as well.
Lots of mathematical improbabilities, but it would be AWESOME if LA finished third. ;) And, if I understood this correctly, it would have to be 1STL 2BOS 3LA if LA were to finish 3rd at all.
As long as STL finishes above BOS, I'm happy ^.^ (mostly because of one other member on BigSoccer who particularly likes making fun of Solo).

Most likely, though, I think it'll be:
LA
STL
BOS/WSH
WSH/BOS/NJ
I think STL will do great, but the probability of them outright winning five of their next six games is highly unlikely. I think LA will most likely clinch with a win on the 23rd (STL ties WSH then beats NJ). Next-most-likely is STL wins their next three games and LA beats BAY; then either STL ties BOS (8/1) or LA doesn't lose to CHI (8/2).
Even though the next three teams BOS will be up against are at the bottom of the table, I honestly can't see them taking seven or more points from those three games since I don't see BOS as a consistent team. So LA will guarantee a place above BOS before they even play their next game.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by JR Salazar on July 10, 2009 at 9:54am: Los Angeles should have performed better against St. Louis Wednesday. Simple as that.

My scenario:
LA
STL
BOS
WAS; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Los Angeles on July 10, 2009 at 10:06am: You've got to give props to LA. It definitely hasn't been all Marta. Camille Abily has scored *almost* as many goals and Aya Miyama has been all over the place with assists and intercepted passes. You can't overlook the defense, either. It's just a solid team, and they play fair.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Shannon Nicole;; on July 10, 2009 at 6:03pm: Except for one little tiny intentionally chest bump that sends a player to the ground...

Los Angeles said:
You've got to give props to LA. It definitely hasn't been all Marta. Camille Abily has scored *almost* as many goals and Aya Miyama has been all over the place with assists and intercepted passes. You can't overlook the defense, either. It's just a solid team, and they play fair.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by StarCityFan on July 10, 2009 at 7:06pm: Los Angeles said:
You've got to give props to LA. It definitely hasn't been all Marta. Camille Abily has scored *almost* as many goals and Aya Miyama has been all over the place with assists and intercepted passes. You can't overlook the defense, either. It's just a solid team, and they play fair.

I think LA would still be in first place or very close even without Marta, but they wouldn't be nearly so far out in front. Even when Marta doesn't score, she draws attention that allows others to score.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by firstSpartan37 on July 11, 2009 at 10:59pm: Whoa! I appreciate the work.

All I care to say is what LA will do. But all I want them to do is BEAT Boston for their final game of the reg. season 3-0 or better would erase that home loss from my brain. We'll take either Boston or St. Louis for the Championship.

That would've been tight if it was the SOL v. Everyone Else for the WPS All-Star Game. HAHAHA.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by StarCityFan on July 12, 2009 at 7:58am: firstSpartan37 said:
Whoa! I appreciate the work.

All I care to say is what LA will do. But all I want them to do is BEAT Boston for their final game of the reg. season 3-0 or better would erase that home loss from my brain. We'll take either Boston or St. Louis for the Championship.

That would've been tight if it was the SOL v. Everyone Else for the WPS All-Star Game. HAHAHA.

Other sports have done that, played the champion against the all-stars from the remaining teams. The all-stars might have better players on the whole, but the champions have the advantage of having played together.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by snipoppers16 on July 13, 2009 at 2:17am: I think it's highly likely that the Sol will clinch the regular season title. I don't see them dropping 2 of their next 3 games, let alone all 3. I think that Athletica has the ability to win the remainder of their games. Boston doesn't have a chance, considering their weak performance (I didn't watch the game, I was too busy driving to the Red Stars game and meeting Briana Scurry and all) against Sky Blue tonight. No disrespect to SBFC meant, (I bolded because if I didn't highlight that then people would ignore that and write paragraphs trying to change my mind from a place it's never been in) but if a team is going after the league title then they can't falter to any team, especially when they have the capability to win.

Ultimately, I really hope that Boston is able to win the series against LA as they play them at home this time around. The series is in Boston's favor with a win at home and a tie on the road. I think that now LA's streak has been snapped and the league's are pouring in from elsewhere, they seem more human and therefore, vulnerable.

In which case LA's other two games are against Chicago and FCGP. Chicago's starting to build some momentum at just the perfect time to steamroll them into and through the playoffs. FCGP really has nothing but (pun not intended!) pride to gain in the remainder of their games. So I would love to see them notch a win against LA at home for regional pride. I think, as much as it saddens me to say, that FCGP is officially out of the playoff running. Their coach reminds me of the 2002 San Diego Spirit coach, that crock whose name I can't even remember. I do remember that despite the fact that Shannon MacMillan had goals pouring out of her ears that year domestically and internationally the coach couldn't put together a consistent starting line-up, let alone one that was successful. FCGP has 2 starting strikers that have a combined 199 international goals...they shouldn't be having this much trouble winning! I haven't even mentioned their mid-field lined with Brazilians...

However after watching their game against Chicago tonight, the game could have easily been closer. If Tarpley doesn't cleat Graczyk in the face in a freak accident they're a man up and Milbrett doesn't blow the best opportunity of her whole season by mere inches the game becomes a 2-1 contest which completely changes the mindset of all the players on both sides. FCGP had no luck tonight, but hopefully they can find some before they play LA.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by StarCityFan on July 13, 2009 at 6:53am: FCGP is officially out of the playoff running.

Not officially. If they won all the rest of their matches, they could finish with 30 points, which would be enough for third, at least. Even winning four out of six would give them a chance if other teams falter. But there's not much margin for error any more.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Winner on July 13, 2009 at 6:13pm: I will be the devi's advocate and ask: Does this mean that the ALL-Star team will lose to the Swedish team because "the opponents have the advantage of having played together"? Every game is undetermined, because there are so many unpredictables.
On reflection about the turn on events:
Who would have thought that LA would now be under scrutiny because they have only lost 2 games (1 home game and 1 away game) for the season?
Who would dream that any team would be criticized so heavily for losing their last game? and why not to SLA? Are they suggesting that SLA was the worst team to lose to, while all I have seen lately on WPS is how GREAT Solo is?
Wow! so LA isn't perfect? Were they supposed to be? Perfection leads to crucifiction, so why be perfect?
You may agree that other teams should be celebrating that everyone still has a chance, and forget about being so heavy with expectations and criticisms.
I will join you with "Keep your heads up LA, and forget the pressure! You don't have to win ALL your games! make many fans happy... just be in the final 4! That's when you need to shine again.... that is the clincher".

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firstSpartan37 said:
Whoa! I appreciate the work.

All I care to say is what LA will do. But all I want them to do is BEAT Boston for their final game of the reg. season 3-0 or better would erase that home loss from my brain. We'll take either Boston or St. Louis for the Championship.

That would've been tight if it was the SOL v. Everyone Else for the WPS All-Star Game. HAHAHA.

Other sports have done that, played the champion against the all-stars from the remaining teams. The all-stars might have better players on the whole, but the champions have the advantage of having played together.; ▶ Reply to This